FXUS63 KDLH 212003 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/ THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND. AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/ CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 40 56 39 60 / 60 60 10 0 INL 39 68 38 62 / 30 0 0 0 BRD 45 60 43 65 / 60 60 10 0 HYR 44 56 40 61 / 60 50 10 0 ASX 40 52 38 54 / 60 60 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121- 140>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM....GRANING AVIATION...GRANING