FXUS63 KMQT 252001 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 401 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE 5H RDG CENTERED OVER MN WILL MAINTAIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS SPILLING INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS TODAY HAVE GENERALLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35IN OR AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE WEST TO THIN OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE. SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70F. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS COOL IN THE AFTN. DRY COLUMN AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO INLAND DWPTS FALLING IN THE AFTN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...RESULTING IN AFTN RH AS LOW AS AROUND 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK DESPITE DRY AND WARMER DAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 AFTER A QUIET STRETCH OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER...MUCH WARMER AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHRA/TSRA IS ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN STILL SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FLANK OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM PUSHING INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RIDGE ALOFT WHICH FLATTENS WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVES WITHIN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MEMORIAL DAY THOUGH AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DRIVES ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA BY TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SHRA WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WEST CWA LATE MEMORIAL DAY AFTN AS GREATEST FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN OVER FAR WEST CWA 18Z-24Z MONDAY. AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION H85 JET VEERING SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT THETA-E RIDGE TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. H85-H3 THICKNESS LINES IMPLY THAT SHRA/TSRA FORMING UPSTREAM OF UPR MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT WOULD TEND TO PEEL OFF SOUTH AS THEY RIDE TOWARD CWA. STRONGER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS GREATEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WOULD BE MORE OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ADDITIONAL MAXIMUM OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS WELL CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF LEAD SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE GETTING WARMER WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH DWPNTS IN THE 50S. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES/H5 WINDS IS OVER THE REGION. SEEMS THAT THERE WILL BE GOOD SHOT AT AT LEAST A COUPLE EPISODES OF ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA AS SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND SINCE THE 850-300MB THICKNESS IS ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AS THE AREA IS ON EDGE OF MLCAPE RESERVOIR OVER 1500J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. UNCLEAR ON STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGHING THAT RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF VERY AMPLIFIED...GFS AND GEM-NH NOT AS MUCH. LESS AMPLIFICATION ALLOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGHEST BLYR MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AS ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WOULD BE ABLE TO FLOW INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SHARPER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOCKED UP OVER THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR NOW AND KEEPS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE SHARPER SOLUTION FROM ECMWF...STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE AROUND TO PROMOTE MORE PULSE TYPE TSRA AS TEMPS WILL BE INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLE LOWER 80S AND DWPNTS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. WEAK COOL FRONT TRIES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS UPR LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE SUMMER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS FM 5-10KFT COULD AFFECT ALL SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...WITH DAYTIME LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING AT SAW AND CMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS