FXUS66 KEKA 201318
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
618 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...SLY FLOW DEVELOPED OFF THE REDWOOD COAST OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS...QUICKLY ADVECTING STRATUS/FG N INTO DEL NORTE COUNTY.
LATEST 11-4U SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF STRATUS FURTHER OFFSHORE
EXPANDING TOWARDS THE COAST AS WELL. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE STRATUS COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND ADJUST
COASTAL MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. 
&&
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 444 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013...SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE
DAMPENING RIDGE. ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY BEFORE A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER AND WETTER WX TO THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE W COAST
TUE DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS APPROX 2-3 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. THICKNESS
VALUES DROP TO 540-550DM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 3-4 KFT AS A RESULT. -SHSN MAY RESULT IN A
DUSTING ABOVE 5KFT WED AND THU...HOWEVER...WITH WARM SOIL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ADDITIONALLY...FROST...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FREEZE...WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI MORNINGS... BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT SKY COVER. TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E
FRI BRINGING DRIER WX AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...MINI-STRATUS SURGE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KFOT AND KACV.
IFR SHOULD GET INTO KCEC LATER THIS MORNING TOO. STRATUS LAYER
APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND THIN...BUT MAY LINGER NEAR THE SHORE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND COOLING ALOFT TONIGHT...SO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT AT NORTH COAST TERMINALS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. 
.MARINE...SEAS WERE STILL STEEP EARLY THIS MORNING AND SATISFYING 
THE CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS REACHING 
CRITERIA FOR A WARNING IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT AND THE WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELED. ASCAT PASS YESTERDAY MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY 25KT
IN THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE MOST BUOY OBS IN FORECAST AREA WERE
UNDER 30 KT. ONE SHIP SOUTH OF PZZ475 DID REPORT 40 KT AROUND
10Z THIS MORNING. BUOY 27 JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DID
REPORT GUSTS TO 38KT SUNDAY EVENING. NAM12 AND GFS MODEL WINDS 
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE MID 30S THIS MORNING AND 
PERHAPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WILL BE FALLING OFF THIS 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH 
POUNCES DOWN ON THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. THUS WILL SCALE BACK THE DURATION
OF THE GALE WARNING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW LATE TNGT 
AND TUE. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. DURATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED
AS TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP GRADIENTS LOOSE NORTH OF THE CAPE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL 
REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG...PERHAPS REACHING MARGINAL GALE WITH 
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT FROM TIME TO TIME. STEEP SHORT PERIOD N-NW 
SEAS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS A SMALL LONG PERIOD 
SWELL ENTERING THE MIX TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.
&&
$$
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