FXUS66 KPQR 222050
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
150 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE 
PACIFIC NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING A COOL SHOWERY 
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN 
OVER THE WEEKEND...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND ALLOWING 
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURES OVER 
SOUTHCENTRAL WA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IMBEDDED 
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A LAYER OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS 
SEEN IN MODELS BETWEEN 285 AND 290K...COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN AREA 
OF RAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THE ISENTROPICS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER WA OVERNIGHT...WILL 
LEAVE POPS HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FOCUS FOR BEST 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTS TO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU AS THE 
MAIN LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVES S OVER THE WA COASTAL 
WATERS...THEN INLAND OVER OREGON THU NIGHT. AFTER A DAY OF WHAT WILL 
LIKELY BE RECORD COOL TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER 
THU DUE TO WARMING OF THE LOW AND A LACK OF PERSISTENT RAIN. 
BY FRI MODELS AGREE THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN DRIFTING NE 
OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E AROUND THE BASE OF THE 
LOW. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN THE 
BACK OF THE MAIN TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES 
FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS FRI AND SAT AS 
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE 
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND BRIEF CLOUD  
BREAKS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW MORE 
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 
A CHANGE FROM INTERMITTENT SHOWERS TO STEADY RAIN LIKELY DURING THE 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS RISE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK 
WITH TEMEPRATURES STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS 
STILL NO TENDENCY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR RIDGING TO RETURN 
TO THE NORTHWEST. KWELSON
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LOW OVER REGION WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT. CURRENT 
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH THE WORST OVER THE INTERIOR N OF KSLE. 
LITTLE CHANGE THIS EVENING...WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR 
CONDITIONS. HIGHER CASCADES AND PASSES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT 
SNOW. PRECIP BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AFTER 05Z... WITH MOSTLY LOW VFR 
AND HIGH END MVFR CIGS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND STEADY RAIN THROUGH 06Z THEN
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. CIGS REMAIN
MVFR AT 1500 TO 2000 FT THRU 06Z...THEN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH MVFR. LOOKS LIKE LOW VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z THU. ROCKEY. 
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE...GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KT....BUT 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS EASE TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS RELAX. WINDS REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH SUN AS PRES GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH S TO SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT AGAIN.
SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 13 FT TONIGHT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN.     ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR
          THE OUTER WATERS...OR 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS EVENING FOR
          ALL COASTAL WATERS. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.