FZAK80 PAFC 090231 ICEAFC SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 530 PM AKST MONDAY FEBRUARY 8 2010 FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13 2010 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE...LOWER FOR BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE FEBRUARY YEAR GROUP AND OUTLOOK FOLLOW THE FORECASTS. SYNOPSIS...A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. -ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA- -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON- PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND- ICE COVERED. -BERING SEA- PKZ185-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS- PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT- PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF- PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN- THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MOLLER TO 56.6N 160.8W TO 56.6N 164.5W TO 56.4N 166.2W TO 56.3N 166.8W TO 56.7N 169.4W TO 57.2N 170.1W TO 57.3N 171.6W TO 58.3N 173.9W TO 59.8N 176.9W TO 60.5N 178W TO 60.8N 179.7E TO 61.6N 176.9E TO 59.7N 171E AND CONTINUES ALONG THE KAMCHATKA COAST. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 2 TO 5 TENTHS YOUNG ...NEW AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE IN STRIPS. UP TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE REMAINS IN THE BAYS ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE MAIN ICE EDGE. DETAILED ICE EDGE POSITION 165W TO 180. 56.6N 165W 56.4N 166W 56.4N 167W 56.7N 168W 56.6N 169W 57.2N 170W 57.3N 171W 57.4N 172W 57.8N 173W 58.4N 174W 59.0N 175W 59.5N 176W 60.2N 177W 60.5N 178W 60.9N 179W 60.8N 180 FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...EAST OF 165W...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY. ICE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AS FAR NORTH AS PORT HEIDEN. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 NM. 165W TO 171W...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND FINALLY TURN NORTHERLY SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 25 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOST OF THE ADVANCE TAKING PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST OF 171W AND WITHIN U.S. WATERS...STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 45 TO 55 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY- PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY- PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS- COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. THE THE ICE EDGE LIES ACROSS THE INLET NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF KALGIN ISLAND. 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TO KAMISHAK BAY. 6 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KAMISHAK BAY. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOWS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRAW THE ICE TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORES OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE THE ICE AWAY FROM THE EAST SHORES AND MOVE THICKER ICE INTO THE LOWER INLET. KCOLE 2010 $$ ...FEBRUARY 2010 YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK... THE YEAR GROUP FOR FEBRUARY IS 1998 BASED ON SEA ICE EXTENT AND WEATHER CONDITIONS. 1998 WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN 2010 DUE IN PART TO A STRONGER MEAN HIGH POSITION OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. BOTH 1998 AND 2010 ARE EL NINO YEARS. THE EL NINO IN 1998 DECREASED THROUGH THE SPRING WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS IN 2010. OUTLOOK...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE AND RETREAT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK IN FEBRUARY. MOST ICE WILL BE OUT OF BRISTOL BAY AROUND MARCH 10TH. MOST ICE WILL BE OUT OF KUSKOKWIM BAY BY MARCH 24TH WITH THE AREA ICE FREE BY APRIL 10TH. FAST ICE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WILL ERODE FASTER THAN THE ADJACENT SEA ICE. KCOLE 2010 $$