FZAK80 PAFC 140211 ICEAFC SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 510 PM AKST MONDAY 13 FEBRUARY 2012 ...BERING SEA OUTLOOK FOLLOWS COOK INLET FORECAST... FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY FEBRUARY 18 2012 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE. SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF/S THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY. -ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA- -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON- PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND- PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT- ICE COVERED. -BERING SEA- PKZ414-BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- PKZ185-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS- PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF- PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN- THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR FALSE PASS TO 56N 162.9W TO 57.1N 164.1W TO 56.6N 167.4W TO 56.9N 170.7W TO 56.7N 171.2W TO 56.8N 172.3W TO 58.2N 175.3W TO 58.9N 179.7W TO 60.4N 177.1E TO 59.5N 171E THEN CONTINUES AROUND THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA. THE ICE EDGE IS 2 TO 5 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW...FIRST YEAR THIN ICE AND SOME FIRST YEAR MEDIUM ICE. ...DETAILED ICE EDGE POSITION... 57N 164W 57N 165W 56.8N 166W 56.7N 167W 56.8N 168W 56.8N 169W 56.9N 170W 56.8N 171W 56.8N 172W 57.3N 173W 57.7N 174W 58.1N 175W 58.4N 176W 58.6N 177W 58.7N 178W 58.8N 179W 59.2N 180 FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...EAST OF 165W...STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. ICE WILL INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION IN BRISTOL BAY. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...165W TO 175W...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF/S THURSDAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 15 TO 25 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ICE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20 NM THURSDAY AND THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY. THE NET ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 NM. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST OF 175W...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ICE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY- PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY- PKZ138-SHELIKOF STRAIT- PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS- COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...A LOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR KODIAK THEN WEAKEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ICE EDGE LIES ACROSS THE INLET NEAR NINILCHIK THEN SOUTH 15 TO 40 NM OFF THE WESTERN COAST TO SHELIKOF STRAIT. ICE IS DIMINISHING IN SHELIKOF STRAIT. 1 TO 5 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES ALONG THE HOMER SPIT AND NEAR THE END OF KACHEMAK BAY. ICE IN COOK INLET MOVES GREATLY WITH THE TIDES. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WEDNESDAY THE ICE WILL MOVE 10 TO 20 NM SOUTH IN THE CENTER OF THE INLET. LIGHTER WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW THE ICE TO MOVE WITH THE TIDES. KCOLE 2012 ...BERING SEA ICE EDGE OUTLOOK... EXPECT A SLOW RETREAT OF THE ICE EDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 WEEKS. THE ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA HAS REACHED RECORD EXTENT. OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS THE ICE FLOWED WELL BEYOND THE NATURAL LIMIT OF THE BERING SHELF IN MANY AREAS. SOME PAN ICE NEAR THE ICE EDGE HAS GROWN TO OVER 3 FEET THICK AND STACKED ICE HAS BEEN REPORTED GREATER THAN 6 FEET THICK. THE JANUARY WEATHER PATTERN OF EXTREMELY COLD NORTH WINDS THAT CAUSED THE EARLY ADVANCE OF THE ICE PACK HAS CHANGED. EXTENDED WEATHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF LOWS MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THEN EITHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OR OVER BRISTOL BAY AND UP THE ALASKA WEST COAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS MORE NORMAL WINTER TEMPERATURES TO THE BERING SEA AND MUCH MORE VARIABLE WINDS AS THE LOWS MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. TYPICALLY EACH LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND OR TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE ICE EDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH 20 TO 35 NM AHEAD OF THE LOWS THEN ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH 20 TO 35 NM BEHIND THE LOWS. THE LACK OF LONG PERIODS OF EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND VARIABLE LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW THE NATURAL CURRENTS ALONG THE BERING SHELF TO HELP THE ICE EDGE RETREAT TO THE NORTH. WEATHER MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECASTING OUT TEN DAYS DO NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT AND LASTING MOVEMENT OF THE ICE EDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS LIKELY THE AVERAGE ICE EDGE RETREAT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 NM TO THE NORTH EACH WEEK THROUGH MARCH. KCOLE 2012 $$