FZAK80 PAFC 070218 ICEAFC SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 520 PM AKST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6 2009 FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 11 2009 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE ON SHORE MONDAY. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- ICE COVERED. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON- PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO POINT HOPE TO 69.7N 165.7W TO 70.2N 167.3W TO 70.4N 169.8W TO 70N 171.4W TO 69.7N 176.5W 69.1N 177.7W TO 68.2N 174.8W TO 67.1N 171.1W TO 66.2N 170W ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE. 4 TO 10 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES KOTZEBUE SOUND. FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FREEZE UP WILL CONTINUE WITH ICE INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG THE COASTS. -BERING SEA- PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND- PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT- PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN- 4 TO 10 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN NORTON SOUND AND PORT CLARENCE. NORTON BAY IS ICE COVERED. 4 TO 9 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NORTON SOUND AND EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST TO KUSKOKWIM BAY. 4 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE COAST OF KUSKOKWIM BAY AND EXTENDS UP THE ALASKA WEST COAST TO TOKSOOK BAY. 1 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN NORTHERN NUSHAGAK BAY. 1 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN UPPER KVICHAK BAY. FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ICE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH AND AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY- ICE IS FORMING AT NIGHT ALONG THE SHORES OF UPPER COOK INLET AND MELTING DURING THE WARMER HOURS. FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ICE WILL PERSIST IN UPPER KNIK AND UPPER TURNAGAIN ARMS BY TUESDAY. ICE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE PORT OF ANCHORAGE BY WEDNESDAY. KCOLE 2009 ...NOVEMBER 2009 YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE... THE YEAR GROUP FOR NOVEMBER 2009 IS 1990. THE ICE IS ALSO SIMILAR 2008. THE OUTLOOK BELOW WAS UPDATED USING A COMBINATION OF DATA FROM 1990 AND 2008 AND REFERENCING THE 2008-2009 ICE YEAR. EVENT 2009-2010 OUTLOOK NORTON SOUND ICE COVERED 13 NOVEMBER MAIN ICE PACK TO BERING STRAIT 27 NOVEMBER ICE EDGE TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 29 NOVEMBER ICE EDGE TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 1 JANUARY ICE EDGE TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND 18 JANUARY ICE EDGE TO SAINT GEORGE ISLAND 25 JANUARY BERING SEA SOUTHERN ICE EXTENT AT 170W 56.5N ON 3 MARCH COOK INLET FIRST ICE AT PORT OF ANCHORAGE 11 NOVEMBER COOK INLET FIRST ICE AT NIKISKI 16 NOVEMBER UPPER COOK INLET EAST OF 151W 15 DECEMBER ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND 24 DECEMBER ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 KCOLE 2009 $$