FZHW50 PHFO 180500 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 700 PM HST SAT MAY 17 2008 HIZ005>011-181900- OAHU- 700 PM HST SAT MAY 17 2008 SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL LOWER TO HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET SUNDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY MAY 23: A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI MAY 16 2008 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 6 NNW 12 8 12 DOWN 4-6 VRB SAME 05/16 SAT 4 NNW 11 6 8 DOWN MED 4-6 VRB SAME 05/17 2 W 14 2 4 UP LOW SUN 4 NNW 10 6 8 SAME MED 7-10 E UP 05/18 2 W 13 2 4 DOWN LOW MON 3 NNW 10 4 6 DOWN LOW 7-10 E SAME 05/19 2 SE 16 2 4 UP LOW TUE 2 NNW 9 2 4 DOWN LOW 7-10 E SAME 05/20 2 SE 15 2 4 SAME LOW WED 2 NNW 9 2 4 SAME LOW 7-10 E SAME 05/21 2 SE 14 2 4 SAME LOW LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... NORTH SHORES TOPPING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS UPPER-END MODERATE SURF FROM 320-345 DEGREES WITH 10-13 SECOND PERIODS. BUOY 51001 AND THE WAIMEA BUOY INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND. THIS EPISODE WAS GENERATED BY A BROAD AREA OF NEAR GALES...28-33 KNOTS...THIS PAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FETCH STRETCHED FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO WITHIN 800 NM OF HAWAII. THE FETCH WIDTH IS THE MAIN CRITERIA THAT ALLOWED THE NEAR HIGH SURF LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY. THE WIDER THE FETCH...THE LESS DECAY IN SWELL HEIGHT WITH DISTANCE IN TRAVEL. WITH SUCH A LONG FETCH...THE EPISODE SHOULD HOLD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. A SECONDARY AREA OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES SET UP OVER A SMALLER AREA OF SIMILAR DIRECTION...325-340 DEGREES...LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EAST OF THE DATELINE...WITH THE HEAD OF THIS FETCH ABOUT 1500. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING REINFORCEMENT TO THE PRESENT EPISODE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL SURF COULD LINGER INTO MID WEEK. MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS REFRACTED SWELL FROM THE SOURCE ABOVE BUT ONLY TINY ENERGY FROM THE EAST. SURF SHOULD STAY LOW FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAND AND SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WIND PATTERN FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TRADES FAVORING LIGHT SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS FLAT CONDITIONS. LOW ODDS FOR TINY SURF OUT OF THE TASMAN SEA...211-220 DEGREES...OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERE GALES TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AIMED TOWARDS HAWAII IN THE 130-145 DEGREE BAND FROM AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SE PACIFIC...WELL SE OF FRENCH POLYNESIA...THIS PAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT A DISTANCE ABOUT 4500 NM AWAY. MOST OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE SHADOWED ON OAHU BY THE BIG ISLAND...ALTHOUGH REFRACTION COULD LEAD TO SMALL TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREAKERS FOR EXPOSED SHORES. IT SHOULD SLOWLY FILL IN ON MONDAY AND HOLD MOST OF THE WEEK. INTO THE LONG RANGE...A SYSTEM SE OF NEW ZEALAND TRACKED NORTHWARD TOWARD HAWAII...A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LOCAL SURF...OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. LOW-END GALES IN THE 180-195 DEGREE BAND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING. THE FETCH WIDTH HAS BEEN WIDE. ENERGY FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD ARRIVE LOCALLY NEXT FRIDAY WITH SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS...HOLDING ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NORTHERN SHORES...MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE LONGITUDES NEAR THE DATELINE TO HAWAII...WHICH KEEPS POTENTIAL OPEN FOR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY LATER NEXT WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN COINCIDES WITH BELOW NORMAL TRADE WIND SPEEDS. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO RECALL. THE NEXT COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...MAY 19. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ CP/NCDDC PAT CALDWELL