FZHW50 PHFO 040454 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 700 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2009 HIZ005>011-041900- OAHU- 700 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2009 SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL PERSIST AT 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY JUL 9: NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST WED JUL 1 2009 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 2 NE 10 2 4 UP 4-6 VRB SAME 07/01 2 SE 10 2 4 UP 4 SSW 17 6 10 UP THU 2 NE 10 2 4 SAME LOW 4-6 VRB SAME 07/02 2 SE 10 2 4 SAME MED 4 SSW 14 6 8 DOWN MED 2 SSW 18 2 4 UP LOW 3 N 9 4 6 UP LOW FRI 3 NE 10 4 6 UP LOW 11-16 E UP 07/03 3 SE 10 4 6 UP LOW 4 SSW 16 6 8 UP MED SAT 3 NE 10 4 6 SAME LOW 11-16 E SAME 07/04 3 SE 10 4 6 SAME LOW 4 SSW 15 6 8 DOWN MED SUN 2 NE 9 2 4 DOWN LOW 11-16 E SAME 07/05 2 SE 9 2 4 DOWN LOW 3 SSW 14 4 6 DOWN LOW MON 2 NE 9 2 4 SAME LOW 11-16 E SAME 07/06 2 SE 9 2 4 SAME LOW 3 SSW 13 4 6 DOWN LOW LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... SOUTHERN SHORES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. DETAILED... MID WEDNESDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 180-200 DEGREES WITH 15-17 SECOND PERIODS. BUOY 51003 SUGGESTS A PEAK IN THE EPISODE AROUND SUNDOWN. THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOW DECLINE AS A NEW EPISODE FILLS IN. A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE E TO SE OF NEW ZEALAND LAST WEEK IS MAKING FOR BACK-TO-BACK...ABOVE AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY THIS WEEK. A SYSTEM LAST WEEK TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SE OF NEW ZEALAND HAD GALES TO SEVERE GALES OVER A BROAD FETCH BEYOND BEYOND 4200 NM FROM HAWAII. THIS IS THE SOURCE FOR THE HIGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK. THE HIGHEST SEAS WERE AIMED JUST EAST OF HAWAII. THIS IS GIVING ADDED ENERGY FROM 180-185 DEGREES AS THE SWELL TRAINS BEND TOWARD HAWAII...ADDED TO THE ENERGY AIMED DIRECTLY AT HAWAII FROM 185-200 DEGREES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS STRONGER WITH SEVERE GALES AND POCKETS OF STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 185-200 DEGREE BAND JUST SE OF NEW ZEALAND STARTING LAST THURSDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCHES STAYED BEYOND 4000 NM AWAY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO BELOW 960 MB AND REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET AT ABOUT 160W LONGITUDE...AS NEW FRONTS PUSHED EQUATORWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD SYSTEM WITH ABOUT A DAY SPACING...EACH BACKED BY THE STRONGEST FETCHES OF WIND ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. WAVE MODELS AND ALTIMETERS SHOWED SEAS TO 35 FEET OVER A WIDE AREA LAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...HIGH SEAS AIMED JUST EAST OF HAWAII...SUGGESTING THE RESULTANT LOCAL DIRECTIONAL BAND FROM 180-200 DEGREES. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGH SURF BY FRIDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE THE HIGH MARK INTO SATURDAY...THEN DROPPING BELOW THE HIGH MARK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THE EPISODE SHOULD FALL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY MONDAY AND SMALL LEVELS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SUBTLE ASPECTS OF THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE EVENT CAN BE TWEAKED AS THE SWELL TRAINS ROLL UNDER BUOY 51003...WHICH GIVES ABOUT A 6-10 HOUR LEAD TIME LOCALLY. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES. STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE GENERATED A SHORT-PERIOD SWELL OF 8-11 SECONDS. BUOY 51003 IS REGISTERING THE START OF THIS EPISODE ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIRECTION IS FROM 140-160 DEGREES. IT SHOULD MAKE FOR MOSTLY SMALL BREAKERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID WEDNESDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS LOW SURF. BUOY 51000 BACKUP AND THE KAILUA BUOY ARE STARTING TO SHOW 8-11 SECOND ENERGY FROM 40-60 DEGREES. THIS WAS GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS WEST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS EPISODE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A PEAK ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH BREAKERS MODERATE OR LESS. LARGE SCALE FLOW SURROUNDING OAHU ON WEDNESDAY IS LIGHT TRADES ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD INTO THURSDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. MINIMAL BREAKERS EXPECTED FROM THIS SOURCE. MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES IS FLAT TO TINY. A SHORT-LIVED AREA OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 1000 NM NORTH OF HAWAII ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD MAKE FOR SMALL SURF FROM 355-010 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...REEFS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST WINDSWELL SHOULD HAVE SMALL BREAKERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE CALIFORNIA WINDSWELL SOURCE SHOULD FADE OUT NEXT WEEK. NO SURF EXPECTED FROM NORTH OF HAWAII. THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WINDSWELL SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF AROUND TUESDAY. MORE OF ZONAL PATTERN IS SETTING UP IN THE JET STREAM FOR THE LONGITUDES OF NEW ZEALAND EASTWARD 1000 NM...AND SHOULD LEAD TO A SUMMER BACKGROUND SWELL PATTERN NEXT WEEK THAT MAKES FOR SMALL TO VERY OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREAKERS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS FROM WITHIN 140-220 DEGREES. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO TOTAL RECALL. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...JULY 6. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS CP/NCDDC PAT CALDWELL