FZHW50 PHFO 250130 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009 HIZ005>011-250500- OAHU- 300 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON... BUILDING TO 20 TO 30 FEET WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON... BUILDING TO 10 TO 20 FEET WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON... BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY NOV 30: THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE WARNING LEVELS...AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURF IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY...AND BRING SURF BACK TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 7 NNW 15 12 16 DOWN 11-16 ENE SAME 11/23 6 ENE 8 2 4 SAME 3 SSW 15 4 6 SAME TUE 6 NNW 13 10 12 DOWN MED 11-16 ENE SAME 11/24 6 ENE 8 2 4 SAME MED 2 SSW 14 2 4 DOWN LOW WED 14 NW 16 30 38 UP HIGH 17-21 ENE UP 11/25 7 ENE 8 4 6 UP LOW 2 SSW 12 2 4 DOWN LOW THU 11 NNW 14 20 26 DOWN MED 17-21 ENE SAME 11/26 8 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW FRI 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN MED 17-21 E SAME 11/27 8 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW SAT 7 NNW 16 12 16 UP LOW 17-21 E SAME 11/28 LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... WINTER-TYPE SURF ON TAP. DETAILED... MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 315-340 DEGREES WITH 13-17 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A STORM- TO HURRICANE-FORCE SYSTEM OVER 2200 NM AWAY NEAR KAMCHATKA LAST THURSDAY. THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MODERATE TO NEAR HIGH BRACKET ON TUESDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THE JET STREAM TRACK SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LATE LAST WEEK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS SHOW A WINTER-TYPE PATTERN THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WITH OVERLAPPING HIGH EPISODES. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKED FROM KAMCHATKA EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS LAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERE GALES IN THE 325-335 DEGREE BAND. THIS SOURCE ALONE WOULD ONLY RESULT IN MODERATE SURF LOCALLY...YET A FOLLOWUP SYSTEM HAS ACTED UPON THE EXISTING SEAS FROM THE FORMER SYSTEM. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORMED OFF THE KURIL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A AMPLIFYING JET STREAM TROUGH STEERING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST. STORM-FORCE WINDS CENTERED ON 320 DEGREES RELATIVE TO HAWAII SET UP FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RESULTANT CAPTURED FETCH DUE TO THE SYSTEM TRAVELING AT SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE GROWING SEAS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...QUIKSCAT SHOWED SEVERE GALES TO NEAR 1000 NM FROM HAWAII IN THE 315-330 DEGREE BAND. COMBINED WITH THE OTHER ALEUTIAN SOURCE...AND CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY TO HAWAII...THIS SPELLS EXTRA-LARGE TO GIANT SURF FOR NORTHERN SHORES OF OAHU. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM RACING TO THE NE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TURNING OFF THE SOURCE FROM 315-330 DEGREES. ONE ASPECT OF A RELATIVELY NEARBY SOURCE IS TYPICALLY A RAPID RISE...WHICH IS EXPECTED IN THE WEE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SURF SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY AT DAWN...WITH THE EPISODE PEAKING MID DAY FROM 310-330 DEGREES. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO PEAK FACE AT THE MOMENT OF MAXIMUM CRESTING IN ZONES OF HIGHEST REFRACTION. WAVES BREAK IN WATER DEPTHS SIMILAR TO WAVE HEIGHTS...THUS THESE TYPE EPISODES RESULT IN HIGHEST BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS IN DEEPER WATERS. SURF HEIGHTS AT HIGHEST NEAR SHORE SPOTS ARE USUALLY ABOUT 30% LOWER. THE EPISODE SHOULD REMAIN EXTRA-LARGE...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS...INTO THE HOLIDAY...AND FALL OFF STEADILY ON FRIDAY AS THE DIRECTION BROADENS FROM 315-360 DEGREES. THE AMOUNT OF SWELL FROM 340-360 DEGREES SHOULD BE MODERATE OR LESS SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THAT DIRECTIONAL SWATH RELATIVE TO HAWAII FOR LESS THAN A DAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE KURILS ON TUESDAY...CROSSING THE DATELINE ON WEDNESDAY...AND NOSING SEVERE GALES TO WITHIN ABOUT 1800 NM OF HAWAII. A MARGINALLY HIGH EPISODE IS EXPECTED LOCALLY BUILDING SATURDAY FROM 315-330 DEGREES. MID MONDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS UNDER MODERATE TRADES FROM 50-80 DEGREES. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TRADES FRESHENING BY WEDNESDAY...HOLDING ABOUT THE SAME INTO SATURDAY. WINDSWELL SHOULD BUILD TO MODERATE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. MID MONDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS INFREQUENT MODERATE SETS FROM 190-200 DEGREES. A SYSTEM TO THE SE OF NEW ZEALAND WEAKENED RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKED EAST. THIS EPISODE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY AND FADE INTO WEDNESDAY. INTO THE LONG RANGE...A SMALL NEW ZEALAND EPISODE IS POSSIBLE LOCALLY NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER...BOTH FROM 180-200 DEGREES. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...BACK-TO-BACK EPISODES INTO THE HIGH BRACKET ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ABOUT A 3 DAY SPACING BETWEEN EPISODE ARRIVAL. TRADES MOST DAYS WITH PEAK DAYS IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...NOVEMBER 25. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS BRAVENDER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL