FZUS81 KCLE 181556 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1056 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009 EL NINO 2009-2010 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. FREEZE-UP OF THE HARBORS AND BAYS AND OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE LIMITED FOR THE WINTER OF 2009-2010. THE LATEST FREEZE-UP MODEL FORECAST INDICATES ICE SHOULD START TO FORM ABOUT NORMAL BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL EL NINO PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE 2009-2010 WINTER SEASON INTO MARCH COULD KEEP THE ICE FIELDS FROM BECOMING EXTENSIVE ON THE GREAT LAKES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF NOVEMBER RAN ABOUT NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKES AND AROUND 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. SO FAR DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TRENDED TOWARD AN EARLY FALL TYPE PATTERN. THIS KEPT THE GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING ABOUT 30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME NEEDED RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT AS WARMER AIR RETURNED TO THE REGION. THE GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPERATURES STARTED OUT ON THE COOL SIDE THIS FALL DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER. IF THE AREA EXPERIENCES A STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAK IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND THE STORMINESS OVER THE LAKES INCREASES...WATER TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE TO DROP AND BECOME PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINIMAL ICE ON THE LAKES. THE MID LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON LAKE ERIE. THE SIX TO TEN DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE COLD AIR OUTBREAK FOR THE END OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING THE AIR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK MAY BE THE THE KICKER TO GET ICE TO START FORMING IN THE PROTECTED BAYS AND HARBORS. THE FREEZING DEGREE DAYS WERE RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL AS OF THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER 2009. IF THE EXPECTED LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HOLDS TRUE...THEN FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE. FREEZING DEGREE DAYS WERE AT ZERO OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE WARMER WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE EXCEPTION WAS DULUTH WHERE ONLY 16 FREEZING DEGREE DAYS HAVE ACCUMULATED. ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS--THE AMOUNT OF HEAT STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR AIR AND HIGH WINDS. LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LAKES THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. FREEZING DEGREE DAY TOTALS AS OF MID NOVEMBER IN THE LAST 6 YEARS: 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 DULUTH 0 159 52 4 123 27 MARQUETTE 0 109 41 0 150 23 SAULT STE MARIE 0 65 23 0 74 9 ESCANABA 0 70 13 0 65 10 GREEN BAY 0 65 9 0 47 10 MILWAUKEE 0 21 0 0 23 1 CHICAGO 0 9 0 0 15 5 MUSKEGON 0 15 0 0 21 0 ALPENA 0 55 19 0 58 8 DETROIT 0 16 2 0 30 0 TOLEDO 0 32 5 0 25 0 CLEVELAND 0 19 0 0 22 0 HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS FOR MID NOVEMBER: 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 NORM DULUTH 38 34 41 44 50 45 46 41 42 47 44 SAULT STE MARIE 45 35 46 45 50 50 47 46 48 52 47 CHICAGO 36 40 44 49 48 57 55 51 50 58 53 ALPENA 46 42 45 47 43 51 46 42 46 53 48 DETROIT 48 39 43 45 47 56 52 48 49 56 52 CLEVELAND 51 41 46 51 53 58 54 49 53 58 56 BUFFALO 50 40 45 46 50 56 52 50 52 58 54 WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS: 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 LAKE SUPERIOR WEST 44 41 41 44 43 45 42 39 41 MM 43 CENTRAL 43 41 40 45 43 45 43 42 43 MM MM EAST 43 40 42 45 42 44 42 MM 43 43 43 LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH 47 44 47 42 MM 53 50 MM 48 MM MM SOUTH 49 46 46 46 45 54 46 48 50 47 51 LAKE HURON NORTH 47 43 45 45 44 49 MM 47 48 MM 46 SOUTH 49 46 47 46 50 54 48 47 48 47 MM LAKE ERIE WEST 49 38 MM 46 49 56 48 46 48 46 48 CENTRAL 52 47 MM 50 52 57 50 48 52 49 50 EAST 51 49 MM 47 50 56 49 47 50 MM 51 SOME PRELIMINARY DATES FOR FREEZE-UP FOR SELECTED WATERWAYS: WATERWAY FREEZE-UP FOR 2008 EARLIEST LATEST DULUTH AROUND DECEMBER 8 11/26/96 12/20/74 LITTLE BAY DE NOC AROUND DECEMBER 25 12/11/72 1/10/92 SAGINAW BAY AROUND DECEMBER 21 12/03/76 1/10/75 LAKE ST. CLAIR AROUND DECEMBER 31 12/17/68 1/18/92 ST. MARY'S RIVER SAULT STE MARIE AROUND JANUARY 1 12/06/76 1/20/75 IZAAK WALTON BAY AROUND JANUARY 3 12/11/76 1/15/71 LAKE MUNUSCONG AROUND DECEMBER 21 11/19/67 1/13/75 RABER BAY AROUND DECEMBER 19 11/26/76 1/14/75 FRENCHETTE POINT AROUND JANUARY 14 12/13/76 1/25/80 THE FORECAST DATES FOR FREEZE-UP ARE ABOUT AVERAGE FOR PROJECTIONS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. $$ LOMBARDY