FZUS81 KCLE 030348 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES BREAK-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1049 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013 THE WINTER 2012-2013 WITHOUT AN EL NINO. THE WINTER OF 2012-2013 STARTED OUT AS IF EL NINO WAS GOING TO COME ON SO STRONG THAT AN EL NINO WATCH WAS ISSUED BACK IN THE FALL. HOWEVER...THE EL NINO NEVER MATERIALIZED AND THE EL NINO WATCH WAS CANCELLED IN MID NOVEMBER. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND ARCTIC OSCILLATIONS AVERAGED IN THE NEGATIVE FROM MID NOVEMBER INTO DECEMBER AND THEN TRENDED ON THE POSITIVE SIDE LATE DECEMBER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A SHARP TURN TOWARD A NEGATIVE FOR BOTH OSCILLATIONS OCCURRED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THE TRENDS NOTED ABOVE WERE INDICATIVE OF GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NOVEMBER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITIVE TREND HELPED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AT ALL LOCATIONS DECEMBER THROUGH JANUARY. BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WINTER TRANSITIONED FROM STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE SEASON TO A MORE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEMS. THE STORM SYSTEMS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE SEASON HELPED TO TAP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND SURGE IT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONCE WINTER SETTLED IN...THE FAST MOVING WEST TO EAST STORMS STARTED TO FORCE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN LATE FEBRUARY. SOME OF THE STORMS GOT CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS HELPED THE COLDER INCLEMENT WEATHER TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER STARTED OUT TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS EXPERIENCED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVING STORM TRACKS THAT FORCED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AND PUMPED DRIER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. IN DECEMBER...THE PATTERN CHANGED ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THE LAKES REPORTED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY...GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED AWAY FROM THE LEE OF THE LAKES. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DURING THE MONTH. THE WATER TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES IN NOVEMBER AND THEN GRADUALLY CHILLED WELL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THIS IS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED THROUGH FEBRUARY. ICE BEGAN TO DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE PART OF DECEMBER BUT REMAINED RATHER THIN IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO THE STORMINESS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS HELP TO STIR UP THE LAKES TO PREVENT THE ICE FROM GETTING A STRONG FOOTHOLD UNTIL THE LATER PORTIONS OF WINTER. LAKE ERIE EXPERIENCED EXTENSIVE ICE COVER BUT WAS NEVER COMPLETELY LOCKED IN BY THE ICE. SEVERAL HOLES REMAINED THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS. ICE DEVELOPED IN THE TYPICAL AREAS ALONG THE SHORES AND IN THE BAYS AND HARBORS OF LAKES HURON...MICHIGAN...AND SUPERIOR. THE STRAITS...ST MARYS RIVER...DETROIT RIVER...AND ST CLAIR RIVER ALL EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE. THE OVERALL ICE SEASON WAS NEAR NORMAL IN TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE. THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD REPORTED OPERATION COAL SHOVEL AND TACONITE BEGAN THEIR ICE BREAKING OPERATIONS IN MID TO LATE DECEMBER. BOTH OPERATIONS CONFINED THEIR EFFORTS TO BREAKING ICE IN THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...DETROIT RIVER...ST CLAIR RIVER...AND THE LOWER ST MARYS RIVER DURING THE ICE SEASON DUE TO THE LACK OF THICK ICE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKES. THE SOO LOCKS ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN ON SCHEDULE ON MARCH 25TH...WHICH IS THE KEY DATE FOR THE BREAKOUT. THE SEASONAL FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AS OF MARCH 1ST WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE COMPARISON OF EACH STATION TO NORMAL... FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THU FEB 28: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH MN FEB 28 1784 1586 MARQUETTE MI FEB 28 1515 1299 SAU_S_MAR MI FEB 28 1222 1018 GREENBAY WI FEB 28 1144 876 MILWAUKEE WI FEB 28 636 509 CHICAGO IL FEB 28 498 355 MUSKEGON MI FEB 28 401 307 ALPENA MI FEB 28 933 679 DETROIT MI FEB 28 384 268 TOLEDO OH FEB 28 387 311 CLEVELAND OH FEB 28 193 184 BUFFALO NY FEB 28 515 253 FLUSHING OF THE ICE IN THE RIVERS NORMALLY BEGINS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. ICE IN THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME IMPACT ON SHIPPING UNTIL THEY ARE FLUSHED OUT. THE 30 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK INTO MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INTO MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN LAKES. THE 15 TO 30 DAY ICE OUTLOOK INDICATES THE ICE FIELDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC OSCILLATIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...WILL AID IN THE OVERALL ICE DEPLETION DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH. AS THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH INTO APRIL...THE ICE WILL UNDERGO ITS NATURAL DECAY CYCLE DUE TO GRADUAL WARMING OF THE WATER AND SUN PENETRATION INTO THE ICE. STORMS WILL AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE FIELDS AS WELL. ICE CONDITIONS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED BY STRONG WINDS AND SUNSHINE. PERSISTENT WINDS INTO A WATERWAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN JAMMING FROM ICE FLOES THAT STILL EXIST. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS OUT OF A WATERWAY WILL FLUSH THE REMAINING ICE INTO THE OPEN WATER WHERE MELTING MAY OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE CAN HELP BREAK UP THE LARGE ICE FLOES MORE QUICKLY THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE OUTLOOKS ISSUED ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BECOMES INSIGNIFICANT TO SHIPPING. $$ LOMBARDY