FZUS81 KCLE 050243 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 943 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009 ...ICE FORMATION DELAYED ABOUT A WEEK... THE FREEZE-UP OF KEY WATERWAYS WILL BEGIN ABOUT A WEEK LATER THAN AVERAGE THIS WINTER SEASON THANKS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AVERAGED BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LAST MONTH. THIS HELPED TO KEEP WATER TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WAS QUITE ACTIVE THIS FALL FORCING MOST OF THE STORM SYSTEMS ON A TRACK WEST OF THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS SEMI PERMANENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HELPED TO KEEP WARM AIR OVER THE REGION DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. AIR TEMPERATURES STAYED ON THE MILD SIDE DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER BUT THEN PLUMMETED DOWN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS YESTERDAY AND TODAY. AS OF DECEMBER 3RD...NO ICE HAS FORMED ON THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO THE MILD AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A STORMY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEMS AND ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ASSIST IN THE HEAT RELEASE FROM THE WATER AND WILL CAUSE THE WATER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO FALL ONCE AGAIN. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY AND FEBRUARY CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LAKES SUPERIOR...HURON...AND MICHIGAN WHILE LAKE ERIE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER LAKE ERIE WHILE THE REST OF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SEE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HENCE...THE LATER ICE FORMATION THAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING DEGREE DAY TOTALS AS OF DECEMBER 3RD COMPARED TO NORMAL: LOCATION 2009 NORM LOCATION 2009 NORM ------------------------------ ------------------------------ DULUTH, MN 30 154 MUSKEGON, MI 0 0 MARQUETTE, MI 14 51 ALPENA, MI 0 20 SAULT STE MARIE, MI 5 62 DETROIT, MI 0 0 GREEN BAY, WI 3 44 TOLEDO, OH 0 0 MILWAUKEE, WI 0 9 CLEVELAND, OH 0 0 CHICAGO, IL 0 0 BUFFALO, NY 0 0 THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER INDICATED SOME ICE WILL FORM IN GREEN BAY... THE BAYS DE NOC...SAGINAW BAY...LAKE ST. CLAIR...AND THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE BY JANUARY 1ST. BY FEBRUARY 1ST...SOME ICE COVER WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ST MARYS RIVER...OVER ALL OF GREEN BAY AND BAYS DE NOC...AND EXTENSIVE COVERAGE IN SAGINAW BAY AND ALL OF LAKE ERIE. THE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WINTER SEASON SHOULD KEEP LAKES SUPERIOR...MICHIGAN... AND HURON FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. SOME PRELIMINARY DATES FOR FREEZE-UP FOR SELECTED WATERWAYS: WATERWAY FREEZE-UP FOR 2009 EARLIEST LATEST: DULUTH AROUND DECEMBER 14 11/26/96 12/20/74 LITTLE BAY DE NOC AROUND DECEMBER 29 12/11/72 2/10/92 SAGINAW BAY AROUND DECEMBER 25 12/03/76 1/25/98 LAKE ST. CLAIR AROUND JANUARY 4 12/17/68 1/18/92 ST. MARY'S RIVER SAULT STE MARIE AROUND JANUARY 6 12/06/76 1/20/75 IZAAK WALTON BAY AROUND JANUARY 8 12/11/76 1/15/71 LAKE MUNOSCONG AROUND DECEMBER 26 11/19/67 1/13/75 RABER BAY AROUND DECEMBER 25 11/26/76 1/14/75 FRENCHETTE POINT AROUND JANUARY 17 12/13/76 1/25/80 THESE DATES ARE MUCH LATER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES. IF THE PATTERN TURNS COLDER THAN EXPECTED...THE BEGINNING OF ICE FORMATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER AS WATER TEMPERATURES DROP FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. $$ LOMBARDY