WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 190622Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM, LIKELY DUE TO THE TRACK OVER COOL SST. A
190124Z OCEANSAT IMAGE, HOWEVER, DEPICTED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
30 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCLASSIFIED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUT ARE DEEMED UNREPRESENTATIVE BASED ON SCATTEROMETER
DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF A BROAD ANTICYCLONE AND IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). TD 23W IS TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TAU
24 WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL SST (24-25C). TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND
AND INDICATES AN EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//