WDPN34 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W HAS CRESTED ITS DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND TRACKED NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
DEFORMED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK AS IT BECAME EXPOSED TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED
ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER TY 20W.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B.  TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD, RAPIDLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KYOTO, JAPAN,
BEFORE TAU 24.  IT WILL THEN PASS TO THE WEST OF TOKYO AND EXIT
HONSHU SOUTH OF MISAWA AND BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.//