WTIO20 FMEE 211208
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/03/2008 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    21/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 997 HPA 
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 60.2E 
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 150 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS REACHING VERY
LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/22 AT 00 UTC: 
16.0S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2008/03/22 AT 12 UTC: 
16.2S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
SEVERAL CENTER MAY POSSIBLES, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE MAIN.
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAINS LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA, REFEERING TO
 ST-BRANDON SLP 999.6 HPA AT 0900UTC.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTING TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE EMISSION OF
 REGULAR WARNINGS.
.