WTIO30 FMEE 111234 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  11  (EX-JAMALA)
2.A POSITION 2013/05/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.5 E
(TEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/05/12 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/05/12 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2013/05/13 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2013/05/13 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2013/05/14 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/05/14 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/05/15 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2013/05/16 12 UTC: 10.1 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
****************CORRECTIVE ON THE WARNING NUMBER********************
EX-JAMALA KEEPS ON WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST GENERALLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTIO
N. SUNDAY, WITHIN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. EX-JAMALA IS TH
EREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARDS TRACK. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON
 THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THIS TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH ONLY PO
LEWARD INFLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, FROM MONDAY.
RE-GENERATION OF EX-JAMALA IS NOW VERY UNLIKELY. THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP DETERMINISTIC MODELS (CEP,
 ARPEGE, ALADIN, UKMO ...) AND THE LAST ECMWF NWP EXCLUDE THE RE-GENERATION SCENARIO.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.