WTIO30 FMEE 091208
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/3/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2009/11/09 AT 1200 UTC :
4.5S / 74.4E
(FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/10 00 UTC: 04.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/10 12 UTC: 05.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/11/11 00 UTC: 05.6S/72.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/11/11 12 UTC: 06.1S/71.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/11/12 00 UTC: 06.7S/69.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/11/12 12 UTC: 07.4S/67.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=1.5+
WITHIN THIS NET, DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO  THE LOW NORTH OF THE
CHAGOS, HAS SUFFERED FROM THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR, AND HAS CLEARLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW, BOOSTED BY THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
SRI-LANKA  IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARDS. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 A 48H, THIS LOW  IS IN CONSEQUENCE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
NWP MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK BUT AN OPTION OF A SLOW
SOUTH WARDS DRIFT SEEMS TO MAKE CONSENSUS AS A RESPONSE TO THE
CONFLICTING EFFECT OF THE STEERING WESTERLY WEAKENING FLOW IN THE
NORTH
AND THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEN
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK S
OUTHWESTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS=