WTIO31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 73.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 73.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.0N 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 73.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111225Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A PASSED ABOUT 30NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI WHICH REPORTED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 993MB (CORRESPONDING TO A 40-45 KNOT INTENSITY). CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RISING SLP (998MB) AND LIGHT WINDS. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO IS THE SOLE OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//