WTIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 025
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 97.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 97.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 20.4N 98.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 97.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS TAKEN
A POLEWARD TURN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES
INTO RUGGED TERRAIN ALONG THE MYANMAR-THAILAND BORDER. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE
35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 12. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
BT
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