WTIO51 PGTW 111500 WARNING ATCP MIL 04A NIO 091111133341 2009111112 04A PHYAN 008 01 025 14 SATL 060 T000 192N 0736E 040 T012 220N 0740E 030 AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 73.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 73.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.0N 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 73.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111225Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A PASSED ABOUT 30NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI WHICH REPORTED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 993MB (CORRESPONDING TO A 40-45 KNOT INTENSITY). CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RISING SLP (998MB) AND LIGHT WINDS. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO IS THE SOLE OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.// 0409110500 42N 801E 15 0409110506 47N 796E 15 0409110512 59N 790E 15 0409110518 63N 787E 15 0409110600 66N 783E 15 0409110606 67N 780E 15 0409110612 70N 780E 20 0409110618 71N 782E 20 0409110700 73N 786E 25 0409110706 75N 793E 25 0409110712 81N 791E 25 0409110718 86N 787E 25 0409110800 98N 773E 25 0409110806 100N 760E 25 0409110812 102N 750E 25 0409110818 104N 741E 25 0409110900 107N 729E 25 0409110906 113N 714E 30 0409110912 118N 712E 30 0409110918 125N 710E 35 0409111000 133N 711E 35 0409111006 141N 712E 40 0409111012 149N 715E 45 0409111018 155N 719E 50 0409111100 163N 725E 50 0409111106 179N 730E 45 0409111112 192N 736E 40