WTPN21 PHNC 101630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 106.5W TO 19.9N 111.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 107.0W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.0W, APPROXI-
MATELY 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, ALBEIT STILL FRAGMENTED, ARE BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111630Z.//