WTPN22 PGTW 270130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261921Z JUN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 261930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 119.5W TO 15.1N 126.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 120.1W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2N 120.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261802Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH FURTHER
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280130Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 105.4W.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//