WTPN22 PGTW 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241051ZNOV09//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 241100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 108.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE LLCC AS WELL. CONSOLIDATION IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UNLIKELY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE OVER THE LAST DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
INCREASING VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//