WTPN22 PHNC 241030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 114.6W TO 17.8N 121.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 115.2W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.7W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.2W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 117W. A 240526Z 89 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 240845Z INFRARED IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC AND THESE ARE PROVIDING BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251030Z.//