WTPN23 PHNC 282300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 176.1W TO 15.9N 177.1E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT IMAGERY AT
282200Z INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 176.9W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
176.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 176.9W, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 281910Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A COMPACT FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292300Z.//