WTPN31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 158.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 158.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 22.8N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 24.3N 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 26.7N 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 29.4N 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 158.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (TWENTYFIVE). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM THAT HAS ENHANCED THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 080246Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 25W IS NOW GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES WHICH ARE INITIALLY PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) WITH FULL ET COMPLETED BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT ET VICE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//