WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 8.5N 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 8.0N 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 7.3N 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 111.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 130710Z AMSU IMAGE CONFIRMS
THE VERY WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND DEPICTS A WEAKENING LLCC.
A 130136Z ASCAT BULL'S-EYE PASS SHOWS 10-15 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS WITH
20-KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW AND RJTD CENTER
FIXES AND THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM BOTH AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS APPROXIMATELY 06 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. TD 26W SHOULD PERSIST AT A WEAK TD LEVEL
THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH-EASTERLY COLD SURGE TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//