WTPS11 NFFN 130600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0717 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 990HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 161.8E AT 130600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. 
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS WITH
OVERALL ORGANISATION DETERIORATING. LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES IN A
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 25 DEGREES. SANDRA TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 66
NM FROM DENSE OVERCAST YIELDING DT OF 2.0. PT=2.0 AND MET=2.5. FT
BASED ON DT THUS, T2.0/3.0/W2.0/24HRS.  
MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 26.9S 161.6E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 29.3S 161.1E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 30.9S 160.6E MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC SANDRA.