WTPS21 PGTW 292230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282221ZAPR2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 151.7E TO 13.9S 147.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
292032Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
151.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEEN STEADILY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN
28 TO 32 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF RANGING
FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OSCAT PASS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED BELOW
THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE LLCC
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302230Z.//