WTPS22 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100153ZMAR2009//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.8S 158.2W TO 25.6S 157.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S 158.1W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
156.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 158.1W, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A LOOSELY-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS CONFIRMED BY A 101652Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER WITH
EVEN STRONGER FLOW LOCATED 60 TO 80 NM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
AN ANTI-CYCLONE ALOFT, AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE DISTURBANCE, ARE PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST (>26C)
AND SIGNIFICANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING SOUTH
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK AND STILL LACKS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LLCC
TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING SURFACE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120200Z.
//