WTPS22 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 173.4E TO 14.5S 179.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
169.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF TROUGHING. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CON-
VECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BANDING STARTING TO DEVELOP.
A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE LLCC HAD 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE LLCC
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS AT MODERATE LEVELS BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE VWS WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE SST, MODERATE VWS VALUES AND AN ORGANIZING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//