WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 165.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 20.9S 168.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 166.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN 181938Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181925Z QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS
NEW CALDONIA. THESE FACTORS WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE STORM
BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR OVER WATER
WELL NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
//