WTPS31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 159.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 159.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.3S 160.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.6S 162.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.9S 164.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.6S 167.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.7S 169.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 30.1S 169.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 159.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100428Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A ROUND 10 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH AXISYMMETRIC UNIFORM CONVECTION, TYPICAL OF AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT AS IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//