WTPS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 176.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 176.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.6S 175.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.5S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.8S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.3S 175.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 24.3S 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 176.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 130526Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED, SMALL POCKETS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF THE LLCC AND INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH MAY BE DRIER, THE LLCC IS TAPPING INTO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EQUATORWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE GROUPING OF PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10P IS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE EAST. TC JASMINE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE WEST AND FURTHER TOWARDS A COL REGION. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AS A STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND TC 10P STEERS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ON A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM SHOULD PICK UP POLEWARD TRACK SPEED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH. TC 10P SHOULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL EASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BECOME WARMER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE, AND SST DECREASE, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS WITH THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR RE- CURVING WESTWARDS AND DISSIPATING FURTHER SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS INDICATE A TIGHT LOOP AND SOUTHEASTWARDS DISSIPATION. THE WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE MORE IN-LINE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO MORE RELIABLE PAST TRACK VERIFICATION IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. THE TAU 96 POSITION IS RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWEST TRACKING AIDS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//