WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 144.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 144.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 11.3S 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 143.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ELONGATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED 185 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 011731Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR AS THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER
DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30
TO 35 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30
KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A POOR
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P WILL
DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE
POOR CONDITIONS AND WILL FURTHER UNRAVEL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA. DUE TO THE OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND FORECAST UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18
FEET.//