WTPS32 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 162.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 162.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.2S 161.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291613Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH UKMET, GFDN, AND NOGAPS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND ECMWF AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST- NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//