WTPS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 37 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 065 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 31.0S 154.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AT
37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND IS
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CYCLONE IS NOW DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN
THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS, TC
11P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//