WTXS22 PGTW 212330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 86.9E TO 10.5S 95.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
86.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH FORMATIVE CON-
VECTIVE BANDING. A 211923Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY BROAD MIDLATITUDE
TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 222330Z.//