WTXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 97.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 97.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.0S 98.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.1S 99.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.9S 100.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 97.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (DURAGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231148Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING PRIMARILY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 29S IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING MARGINALLY ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUTDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A 230320Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE STORM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVELY MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BOTH OF THESE VARIABLES WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 36. THIS CURRENT INTENSITY TREND DEVIATES SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR GRAD- IENT NOT ADVANCING AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD CONFINING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS, FORECAST INTENSITIES WILL REFLECT A DELAYED WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SHEAR GRADIENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //