WTXS32 PGTW 042100 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 55.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 55.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 14.3S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.3S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.2S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.1S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 55.1E. TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BANDING, YET ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND WARRANTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NONETHELESS A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BUILDING MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS SHOULD THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THIS ANTI- CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWEST- WARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS WELL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. //