WTXS33 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 030
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 45.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 45.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 20.5S 44.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 45.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT SURFACE
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW 35 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
ANTANANARIVO AT CPA (ABOUT 40 NM) INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 43 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 1003 MB.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS TRACK THE REMNANTS OF TC 18S INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 24, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//